AAP, still a young party, has a long way to go. The party has already started playing politics, beating others who are very experienced in the field. The party never misses a chance to capitalize any political gain and build narratives, and it has been successful in recent times. This has given it a majority in two states, and if we look at the success ratio seat-wise in assembly elections, it is very high. This is a great achievement for any party that started from nothing within the last ten years.
Regarding the future of the party, one major point to consider , who are the voters of AAP. In my view, the majority of the voters are Punjabi and Sikh voters who have been supporting the seprate nation movement , muslims and the poor who are lured by the freebies given by the AAP government.
The Punjabi voters, as seen from their win in Punjab, are those who had been supporting the seprate state movement. This was evident from various incidents when AAP came to power and then supporters openly started the movement for seperate state. Even state buses had been used to display posters of the pro-Khalstn movement. They were taken down only after objections raised by other politicians, especially from the BJP. The pro-Khalstn supporters are backing them in Delhi as well. Delhi has a significant percentage and influence of Punjabis (not Sikhs alone). There are about 35% Punjabis as per the 2011 census, though the Sikh population is only 5%.
Another group they have been able to attract is Muslims. There were about 12% as per the 2011 census, and this number has likely increased as the overall Muslim percentage has risen. The main reason for their attraction was protection from BJP's pro-Hindutva actions.
The above votes constitute about 40%, which is good enough to easily win elections. They had 53% votes in their favor. The question now is what happens during the Lok Sabha elections: which voter turns from AAP to BJP in the Lok Sabha election? This is the poor Hindu voter who comes from states other than Punjab, which are from “Purvanchalis (24%), Jats (8%), Vaish (8%), Gujjars (7%)”. The are poor voters among the above demography who shift to AAP for freebies. This must be around 15–20%. So in assembly elections, AAP gets around 50% of the vote, and BJP gets around 35%. In Lok Sabha elections, BJP gets around 50% of the vote, as 15% of the poor voters who had voted for freebies for AAP in the assembly now vote for BJP, making BJP win the election. As we know, freebies are a state subject, not a central subject.
If the same political scenario exists, then AAP will remain in Punjab and Delhi for a long time, meaning for the next two assembly elections, if not caught in any major corruption. Corruption charges may put AAP in trouble in the future.
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