The Advanis Rath Yatra
The Rath Yatra began in Somnath on September 25, 1990, led by the BJP leader Shri L.K. Advani. This Yatra started from Somnath in Gujarat, a Hindu pilgrimage site with a temple reconstructed during the early years after India's independence and completed in 1951. The major involvement came from Home Minister Vallabh Bhai Patel and Mahatma Gandhi. In a similar view of Somnath, Advani started Ram Rath Yatra for the building of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, as Ayodhya was a disputed site where Babri Masjid had stood for hundreds of years. This Rath Yatra was a political agenda with a pro-Hindutva stance, aiming to gain the confidence of all Hindus irrespective of caste and race. Most Hindus regard Shri Ram as their ultimate authority and consider him a Bhagwan (God if compared with Western religions). The Rath Yatra was carried out in a converted Toyota DCM mini-truck. Narendra Modi, at the time, was the Organization Secretary of Gujarat BJP, responsible for managing and planning this Yatra. This Yatra covered parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh (today mostly Telangana), Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Many rallies were held, attracting a large number of Hindus.
The Rahul gandhi Nyaya Yatra
The Nyay Yatra by Rahul Gandhi , congress, started from Thombal, Manipur, to Mumbai, covering 6700 km and spanning eastern states (Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya), West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. The agenda for this Yatra focused on addressing social injustice and increasing disparity in society, as claimed by Congress. Congress primarily was concerned with the undue gains given to Adani. Rahul Gandhi repeatedly explained to the people of India that Modi was misleading the country in the name of Hindus and in reality was trying to give advantage to a few chosen industrialists like Adani and Ambani.
Both the above Yatras covered around the same distance, and the people's participation in both Yatras is huge and somewhat comparable.
Advani's agenda was that Hindus, being a majority, had been neglected due to Congress policies. They aimed to unite Hindus on the agenda that Hindus are not given recognition as a major religion and congress continued to suppress their beliefs. They requested all Hindus to unite irrespective of caste and status as OBC, SC, ST against the suppression of Hindus beliefs. This was a counter to the Mandal Commission of the V.P. Singh government, which had proposed a law to provide 27 percent reservation to the OBC playing partisan politics.
In contrast to the above agenda, Rahul Gandhi is claiming that SC, ST, and especially OBC were suppressed as BJP and major organizations were headed by the higher class, i.e., people not belonging to SC, ST, and OBC. So these classes were suppressed economically. Rahul Gandhi promises to provide more reservations for these classes as their population is more. Congress does not have plans to increase employment but to divide the present resources rather shift the resources to SC, ST, and OBC.
I still wonder why such partisan and divisive politics still work in India. In contrast to this, BJP till now is working on a pro-Hindutva agenda. For this, they are not promising any change in reservations given till now. But BJP is still not giving any counter to this Congress policy. Sooner or later, the partisan policy of the Congress will be understood by the people of India, but the question is whether they understand this at the current time. As per the literacy and education in India, people still go for short-term gains. I think this promise of Congress for caste-wise census and then reservation based on this census will play a major role in 2024 elections and will raise their voting percent. But will this politics be able to give Congress the major win to form a government?
In the above states covered by Rahul Gandhi, are mainly the northeast, and he is trying to cover the places where caste politics and Muslim population have been playing a significant role in receiving the votes.
But since the elections are very near, would this Yatra be able to gain seats and give Congress and its allies (I.N.D.I alliance) a majority in Lok Sabha?
Let's see the seat distribution state-wise:
in 2019, BJP in major Hindi-speaking states has won 190 seats out of 258 seats, whereas Congress could only score 4 seats;
BJP - in states of Uttar Pradesh: 62 seats, Gujarat: 26 seats, Maharashtra: 23 seats, Madhya Pradesh: 28 seats, Rajasthan: 24 seats, Bihar: 17 seats, Haryana: 10 seats.
Congress:
Uttar Pradesh: 1 seat, Gujarat: 0 seats, Maharashtra: 1 seat, Madhya Pradesh: 1 seat, Rajasthan: 0 seats, Bihar: 1 seat, Haryana: 0 seats.
Now two factors are in play : Rahul Gandhi's Nyay Yatra with Congress's agenda of economic disparity and social injustice. The other factor is the completion of Ram Mandir by Modi Sarkar, which will certainly boost the voting percentage in the above states as these are the states where RSS and other Hindu parties are in major play. As we have already seen in the Rahul Gandhi earlier Bharat Jodo Yatra could not bring seats in these states.
So in toto, here Congress is going to see some downfall or maybe win a few more seats along with their alliance of Samajwadi party(5 seats) and Bahujan Samaj party(10 seats) where the caste factor may play some role in winning seats. This may increase some share in Uttar Pradesh, increasing the number to around 25 with the alliance (I.N.D.I alliance).
BJP may reduce to 180 in the above states if Nyaya Yatra makes some impact due to reservation agenda and impact due to personal interaction of Rahul with people.
Lets see the Hindi-speaking states of Punjab, Himachal, and Delhi as they have a different political scenario. Punjab today is ruled by Aam Admi Party and has been somehow supporting old agendas as during Indira times, so BJP may not be successful here and I.N.D.I alliance win all seats. In 2019 BJP had 8 seats out of 13. So consider BJP here is limited to one seat and all others to AAP and Congress - so twelve seats.
Similarly, in Delhi, AAP is the ruling party in 2019 all seats were won by BJP here I.N.D.I alliance may get some seats BJP numbers may reduce to say four seats.
Now let's look at Himachal Pradesh, having 4 Lok Sabha seats were won by BJP and at present congress is a ruling party also people here are mainly Hindus and support BJP but they normally sometimes take turn, BJP may score 3 seats here also. Congress may get 1 seat.
Let's look at the rest of the states which are south India and the northeast where Hindutva politics is not making much impact till now. These states constitute 260 seats where BJP had won 94 seats. Congress had won 48 seats. In these states, BJP performance may decrease as seen after Rahul Gandhi Bharat Jodo Yatra had a good effect in turning voters to Congress side. BJP still can score good numbers from here lets assume BJP scores 50 seats from these states.
BJP total score now is 180 + 4 + 1 +50 = 235 seats, still away from the clear majority of 272 seats. Now look at the seats from the NDA. JDU in Bihar (16 in 2019) may get around 14 seats due to the rising strength of Tejaswi in Bihar. Shiv Sena (13 in 2019) already broken from NDA but the present alliance may still get half the numbers so assume 7 seats with present alliance with Shinde and others. Other parties (20 seats in 2019) in NDA may get around 10 seats assuming bad days for them. Total BJP 235 + others in NDA 14+7+10 = 31. which implies 235+31= 266 seats for NDA. Falling 272-266 = 6 seats. So, for NDA from my view will make a come back with tough fight.
Now considering the performance of I.N.D.I alliance as all other parties may come together they may win by a few seats.
This time election is not one-sided.
Few negatives for NDA are kisan andolan, and unemployment data which may again go against the NDA. Though I have been pessimistic in all my calculation for NDA seats, NDA may win the elections. But " ab ki baar char sau par" is difficult.
Congress may get about 120 seats on its own considering that loss to BJP may count to gain in congress. If the I.N.D.I alliance work. which itself is highly improbable, But its too early to tell as in one night, calculation between party changes with one meet at hotel.
At present BJP doesn't have any other counter to the Nyay Yatra except for Ram Mandir.
Since Ram Mandir has already won the votes in past elections this factor may not add to further votes. but the I.N.D.I alliance makes a difference to the vote percentage and INDI alliance may gain from this. as BJP vote share is 37 % still not above 50 %. if others succeed in keeping the alliance it will be difficult for the NDA to make a comeback.
I think still there is time to give some counter to the Nyaya Yatra. as Rahul Gandhi's personal appearance with the voters will certainly effecting the voter's perception.
This Nyay Yatra is going to yield results if not in this election then in the future.
I expect Rahul Gandhi may learn something from this rally and may become mature to lead India in the future. At present, it is seen from the Nyay Yatra's videos that he is still not a good orator who can really turn the public mood. Today MODI is a brand and people do want to vote for the strong leader at the center. But with time MODI has also lost this charisma to some extent as he is not able to get sufficient votes to win the election for his candidates.
But still Congress is too far to reach the winning tally without the success story of the I.N.D.I. alliance.
I still see BJP making a comeback but not with flying colors as said by PM "ab ki bar 400 paar" seems too unachievable.
lets hope that MODI comes back once again and I can say "ab ki bar phir modi sarkar".
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